U.S. Government Shutdown Expected to End, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,824/mt, touched a low of $10,801/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose straight to a high of $10,871/mt before consolidating sideways, and finally closed at $10,840/mt, down 0.32%, with trading volume at 13,000 lots and open interest at 324,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 86,590 yuan/mt, touched a high of 87,050 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fell all the way to a low of 86,530 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 86,770 yuan/mt, up 0.08%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 205,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 11, Marubeni, JX Metals, and Mitsui Mining & Smelting signed a memorandum of understanding to initiate specific discussions on integrating related businesses of Mitsubishi Materials into their jointly-owned Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). Affected by the deteriorating global copper concentrate procurement environment, this move aims to enhance international competitiveness and profitability through procurement integration, function centralization, and operational optimization. In the future, the relevant businesses are planned to be transferred to PPC through methods such as corporate divestiture.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 11, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract ranged from a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 130 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 55 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,610-86,920 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the morning session, the SHFE copper 2511 contract surged, briefly hitting 87,000 yuan/mt, then gave up gains and fell below the daily average line, dropping to around 86,630 yuan/mt near 11 a.m. Looking ahead today, inventory in the Shanghai area is gradually declining, and suppliers' offers are relatively stable. Spot premiums are expected to have limited room for expansion.

(2) Guangdong: On November 11, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 20 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 140-100 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 120 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,745 yuan/mt, up 295 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,645 yuan/mt, up 305 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as the delivery date approaches, suppliers are no longer cutting prices aggressively and are holding prices firm. Spot premiums moved higher, but overall trading was moderate.

(3) Imported copper: On November 11, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-52/mt, QP November, with the average price up $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$10/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Offers refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 11, the futures closing price was 86,710 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 55 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,300-78,500 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,361 yuan/mt, down 34 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,570 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, transactions of secondary copper rod were sluggish during the day. Some secondary copper rod enterprises reported that due to the delay in government subsidies, they are mainly fulfilling historical orders and are not actively taking new orders.

(5) Inventories: On November 10, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 25 mt to 136,250 mt. On November 11, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 825 mt to 42,964 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to end the government shutdown, easing market risk aversion. In addition, ADP data showed that US companies cut an average of 11,250 people per week, and the cooling labor market strengthened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Fed. The US dollar index closed slightly lower, providing tailwinds for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported cargoes and state-owned enterprise supplies continued to arrive, keeping supply relatively loose. Demand side, the rebound in copper prices dampened downstream purchasing sentiment, and demand remained weak. Overall, with macro tailwinds expected, copper prices are projected to find support today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]